For Phase 1, we posed a series of questions to an esteemed group of over two dozen land use experts from around the country, which included representatives from public agencies, consulting firms, and academia. While we saw some variation in the responses to certain questions, we were able to draw out the following trend-level opinions based on the majority of responses:
As the percentage of AVs in the fleet mix increases, more population will shift to suburban areas, while more job growth will occur in urban areas. The prevalence of AVs will be a primary contributing factor to this condition, whereas the prevalence of drones and other non-traditional delivery methods will be less of a factor.
There are mixed opinions regarding the degree to which increased amounts of centralized delivery locations (via ground or air) will affect curbspace demand.
Rooftop deliveries via drones will comprise only a small portion of all deliveries.
Many thanks to the land use experts who participated in our survey, including representatives from ZGF, Raimi Associates, Leland Consulting, ECONorthwest, Urban Economics, Cascadia Partners, HDR, University of San Francisco, University of Utah, Arizona State University, and many others. We now begin Phase 2: modeling the effects on traffic, vehicle miles of travel, and transit use. The results are planned to be published later this year.